With their 4-1 win over the California Victory on July 15, the Portland Timbers reached the midpoint of their 2007 season and find themselves surprisingly atop the USL First Division table, in a season when many predicted the offseason changes would result in another season at the bottom of the table, which is where the Timbers found themselves last year, tied for dead-last with the Minnesota Thunder.
Gavin Wilkinson
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Long-time Timbers defenseman Gavin Wilkinson took over the head coaching duties after the 2006 season and his defensive experience has clearly paid off, as the Timbers lead the league in fewest goals allowed, giving up only 8 goals in 14 games, or .57 goals per match. But their offense has also responded, leading the league with a 1.57 goals per match average, which is 22 goals on the season so far.
At the midpoint of the 2007 season, the Timbers have 9 wins, 2 losses, and 3 draws, with 30 points on the season. This is the highest point total the USL Timbers have ever had at the midpoint, topping their previous best in 2004 (9-5, 27 points). Last season the Timbers were at 5-4-5 (19 points) at the midpoint, but only won two games over the remainder of the season.
So how did the Timbers achieve a turnaround in such a short time, and how much of this can be attributed to their schedule? Let’s break this down, starting with the Timbers’ schedule to this point.
Schedule:
Statistically speaking, the Timbers have played the second weakest schedule in the league so far, behind the Puerto Rico Islanders. This is a bit deceiving as the strength of the schedule is typically lower for teams who have a better winning percentage, but the five games against last-place California have undoubtedly have a great deal to do with where the Timbers sit in the standings, having swept a full 15 points from the Victory in beating them five straight times. But the Timbers also took four of six points from Montreal, three points out of six from Rochester, and defeated Miami for the first time.
The only real trouble the Timbers have had this season has been with rival Seattle, where the Timbers lost 1-0 at Qwest Field in what was probably the poorest performance of the season, and were looking to drop three points to them at PGE Park when they went down 2-0 late in the match a week later, but pulled back two goals to take a point out of the match. In terms of momentum on the 2007 season, so far this has been the turning point, as the Timbers are 7-1-1 since, 11-2-1 if you include exhibitions and Open Cup games, including wins over Necaxa of Mexico and the AC Milan U21 team.
The low point of the 2007 season so far is undoubtedly the 2-1 loss in the Open Cup at Seattle, a match widely derided as one of the most poorly officiated matches in recent history, even eliciting an apology from Sounders coach Brian Schmetzer to Wilkinson after the match.
The Timbers schedule does get tougher in the second half of the season, but not significantly so. We will address that later on.
Positional breakdown:
Forwards:
This was the position with the greatest uncertainty entering the 2007 season, with an all-new set of forwards, and only Chris Bagley having any professional goals scored.
David Hague
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After a slow start to the season where most of the scoring was coming from midfield, starting with the afore mentioned Seattle draw, scoring from the forward position has picked up, first with Bryan Jordan and his four league goals since first breaking through against Seattle, and David Hague finally finding the net in California, then breaking through with a 20 minute hat trick this past Sunday. Chris Bagley has yet to find the net despite playing almost as many minutes as Hague and Jordan combined, but he was only kept out of the net recently by some spectacular goalkeeper play, so the sense is that he will find the net soon. Luc Harrington and Jaime Ambriz have not yet scored in limited league play, though Harrington did score in an Open Cup match in Bakersfield, and Wilkinson has used midfielders Andrew Gregor and Luke Kreamalmeyer at forward at times as well.
Midfielders:
Andrew Gregor
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When you talk about the Timbers 2007 midfield you have to start with Andrew Gregor. The three-time all-league midfielder returned to the Timbers this year after having spent the 2004 season in Timber green, then returning to the Sounders for two seasons. Coming back to his hometown to complete his studies at the University of Portland, the Timbers essentially traded midfielders with Seattle, with the Sounders getting perennial Timbers fan favorite Hugo Alcaraz-Cuellar. To this point the Timbers have seemed to be getting the better of the deal, with Gregor having six goals and four assists while Alcaraz-Cuellar has one goal and four assists. Gregor’s greatest contribution to the team has been the fact that he probably has the best free kicks and corner kicks in the USL. Though he has been credited with four assists already, at least two other goals were directly the result of his free kicks as they were flicked on to the eventual goal scorer. Though he has been criticized by some Timbers fans as not giving his all for the full 90 minutes, he is still clearly one of the best midfielders in the league and gets a lot of credit for the Timbers being at the top of the table.
The only returning midfielders from the 2006 season are Luke Kreamalmeyer, Tom Poltl, and Troy Ready, all of whom have had their minutes reduced this year through injury, but all have contributed during their time in the lineup. Newcomer Kiki Lara from Minnesota has shown moments of brilliance in limited minutes, and assisted on Bryan Jordan’s goal against Necaxa. Neil Dombrowski has been solid in his first year with the Timbers, playing a defensive role to Gregor’s attacking posture, but also contributing offensively when he scored the go-ahead goal against Montreal.
Newcomers Lawrence Olum and Tom Taylor have also had their moments to shine in limited minutes, with Olum heading in the game-winner against Miami, and Taylor scoring the lone goal against the AC Milan U21s. The return of Shaun Higgins to the Timbers midfield after a one year absence has been a welcome addition as he has probably played his most solid stretch of matches as a Timber, and has earned a steady starting job recently.
Long-time Timbers followers have probably noticed the change in Timbers attacking strategy from a “go wide and cross” attack into a style of play that is going much more through Gregor at attacking midfield. The Timbers have not had a central midfielder who was a serious threat to score since Greg Howes left in 2002, or at least since Gregor paired with Alex Bengard in 2004, and Gregor’s skill as a holding midfielder has allowed the Timbers scoring to spread out to more positions on the field, with nine different players already having scored in league play this year.
Defenders:
Scot Thompson
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Coach Gavin Wilkinson spent his career as a defender, and when he put together the 2007 Timbers squad, he truly did build from the back as the Timbers defense is almost all-new, but has become the most solid defense in the league, on a nearly record pace for the league in their stinginess in giving up goals.
But a more telling statistic is that the Timbers defense is allowing very few shots to get through to their goalkeeper. From 2001 to 2006, if you consider the number of goalkeeper saves and goals allowed to be “quality shots”, the Timbers have allowed a bit over five “quality shots” a game for each season, and never below 4.9 for any complete season up to 2006. In 2007 the Timbers are giving up less than 3.3 per game, a 33 percent reduction from their previous best.
You could say the Timbers defense this year has been built around Scot Thompson, who returns for his fourth year with the Timbers. The addition of newcomers Cameron Knowles and Justin Thompson in the middle has allowed Scot to thrive at his right side position, coming forward more often and also contributing a goal and an assist as well has his solid defensive play.
Knowles and Justin Thompson were unknown factors coming into the season, with Knowles seeing limited play in the Real Salt Lake organization and Thompson coming over from England after playing with several clubs there, and time with Vancouver several years ago. But their play in the center of the Timbers defense has been rock-solid and both have also proved to be effective targets on free kicks from Gregor. Knowles has already scored twice along with an assist and Justin Thompson has an assist on a flick-on header off a Gregor free kick.
On the left side of the defense is Leonard Griffin, a Timbers draft pick from 2004 who spent the past few years with the Chicago Fire. Griffin was the first player Wilkinson targeted after he took over the head coaching duties, and Griffin has responded with one of his best years as a professional, including his first two goals ever, the first being a memorable blast at home against Rochester, followed a few weeks later by repeating the feat against the same Rhinos team on the road.
The leadership of Scot Thompson, along with the experience of Griffin and Wilkinson’s defensive prowess have allowed Knowles and Justin Thompson to come along more quickly than anyone probably expected, and jelled into the league’s premier defense.
Long-time Timbers defender Lee Morrison has become the odd man out more than any other returning player, but he is still a solid defender and could fit easily into either of the inside slots if needed. Returning defender Garrett Marcum has not yet seen league action this year, though he did score during a preseason match at the University of Portland. Newcomer Kevin Meissner saw his first league action just this past Sunday vs. California, but is still somewhat of an unknown quantity.
Goalkeepers:
Josh Wicks
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Only one goalkeeper has seen action for the Timbers in league play in 2007 and that is Josh Wicks, who has played all 1260 league minutes between the pipes for the Timbers.
Wicks had been with the Vancouver Whitecaps for a few years before being signed in the off-season, and many fans expected him to be a backup to Bayard Elfvin, who was returning for his third season. But during the preseason it became apparent Wicks was in the running for the starting job, and the decision to give him the nod seems to have been the correct one, as Wicks leads the league in wins (9), shutouts (8), and goals against average (.57 per game). Wilkinson has admitted that the difference in the talent of his keepers is quite small, but Wicks has gotten the job done and will probably retain the job for the remainder of the season barring injury or a serious drop in his performance. Wicks has also added the dimension of having such a powerful foot that he has two assists on the season already.
Elfvin did record shutouts against Necaxa and in the Open Cup at Bakersfield, and may be the best backup keeper in the league, with a career goals against average under 1.0. Steve Reese has not seen action yet this season as the Timbers third keeper.
Where the Timbers need to improve:
It’s hard to complain much when the Timbers have surged to the top of the league, but there are some areas of concern that coach Wilkinson will no doubt be addressing as the Timbers prepare for the second half of the season.
The Timbers have been too reliant on Andrew Gregor’s set plays for their offense. It’s nice to have such a skilled player putting nearly perfect crosses in each time the Timbers have a set play, but in the run of play, the Timbers have difficulty in threatening the opposing net. Other than Gregor, only one Timbers player has more than one assist this year, and that player is goalkeeper Josh Wicks. Other players are going to have to start stepping up in setting up Timbers goals, as there have been almost no assists from midfield this year other than Gregor’s, and defenses will be concentrating more on shutting Gregor down. Gregor also needs to control the number of cards he accumulates, as he’s already slated to miss a game this weekend for card accumulation and already has a yellow card towards the next suspension.
Chris Bagley is also going to have to start scoring or defenses are going to spend less time worrying about him, and more time worrying about Jordan and Hague. Bagley has shown more in the past few games so Timbers fans can only hope this is the sign of good things to come. But Hague’s surge in recent games means Bagley’s time in the starting lineup may be short-lived.
The defense has been solid overall but has still suffered too many lapses at critical times, especially late in matches. A defensive breakdown allowed Seattle to get a second goal before the Timbers surged back for a draw, as well as a late equalizer against Montreal when they should have had the game locked up, and most recently a breakdown nearly cost the Timbers a win against California, saved only by Wicks charging off his line to smother the shot. A defense of this caliber should not be allowing the relatively soft goals they have allowed at times, and I’m sure Wilkinson considers this one of his top priorities.
Looking ahead to the second half of the season:
In terms of the strength of their remaining schedule, the Timbers’ schedule is sixth-toughest from here to the end of the season, but actually statistically the easiest among the remaining major contenders (see below). But the Timbers only have five remaining home games while they have nine on the road, so their ability to get results away from PGE Park may be the key to whether they can maintain their position at the top of the table.
Of their final five home games, two are against Vancouver, who have faltered lately but are still a formidable opponent, and with so few home games it’s critical that they get as many points out of those two games as possible, with the first coming this Thursday night. The Timbers are 21-7-2 all-time at home on Thursday night.
After that, the Timbers have a back-to-back this weekend at Charleston and Atlanta. The Timbers have never won both ends of a back-to-back, but they usually emerge with three points.
After a Thursday night home game against Atlanta, the Timbers are once again on the road to Seattle on a Wednesday, and Minnesota on the following Saturday. The Timbers should be very motivated to get a good result in Seattle after their poor showing in May, and the Open Cup debacle. The Timbers traditionally do well against Minnesota and have a winning record in Minnesota (5-2-3).
The Thunder then come to visit PGE Park for a Thursday game and the Whitecaps make their last visit to PGE Park this year that following Saturday. After these two games there is only one home game remaining on the schedule so I’m sure Gavin’s lads will want to get a good result in the final homestand.
The Timbers have a one-game trip to Minnesota before returning to play Charleston on a Thursday night for their final home game of the season. The Timbers will need to have built up a good lead by this point as the last four are on the road, but it could have been worse.
The toughest stretch of the remaining schedule will undoubtedly be the back-to-back at Miami then at Puerto Rico on August 25 and August 26. While the Timbers typically split their road trips, the Timbers have not faired well in either of these cities, where they are 0-3 all time, having been outscored 8-3. Late August games in Miami and Puerto Rico are also likely to be hot and humid, so any points gained from these two matches will be a bonus.
The Timbers were originally scheduled to play a back-to-back at Virginia Beach and Carolina on September 2nd and 3rd, but Virginia Beach’s departure from the league just before the start of the season resulted in the wild schedule that gave the Timbers five games with California, and the July 7 game at the Victory (which the Timbers won 3-0) replaced the game at Virginia Beach. So the Timbers greatly benefited from the schedule change, especially in the case of not having to play a back-to-back here.
The Timbers finish their season Sunday, September 9 at Vancouver. The Timbers are 1-11-1 all-time in Vancouver. Any points here would be a major coup.
Schedule breakdown and analysis:
Here is my attempt to predict how the rest of the schedule could work out:
Timbers home games:
Vancouver
Atlanta
Minnesota
Vancouver
Charleston
Timber Jim
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Of these five teams, only Atlanta and Vancouver are in a position to be challenging for the title right now. The Timbers should take at least one game from Vancouver at home and all but the Minnesota game are Thursday night games when the Timbers do very well.
Predicted best case: 4 wins 1 draw, 13 points
Predicted worst case: 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw, 10 points
Road trip #1
at Charleston, at Atlanta
I don’t see the Timbers sweeping this, as they never had, but a win and a draw is possible. I think they will get at least two points, either getting one win or drawing both.
Predicted best case: 1 wins, 1 draw, 4 points
Predicted worst case: 2 draws, 2 points
Road trip #2
at Seattle, at Minnesota
The Timbers will want the Seattle game very badly, and should do well on this trip, which is spaced out well so they should be rested:
Predicted best case: 2 wins, 6 points
Predicted worst case: 1 win, 1 loss, 3 points
Road trip #3
at Minnesota
The Timbers have traditionally done well in Minnesota, but the Thunder also have their moments as they beat Montreal 3-0 at home just this past week.
Predicted best case: 1 win, 3 points
Predicted worst case: 1 draw, 1 point.
With their superb defense, I believe the Timbers can get a draw on the road even if they don’t play well.
Road trip #4
at Miami, at Puerto Rico (back to back), at Carolina, at Vancouver
The Timbers should split their games in Miami and Puerto Rico, probably draw in Carolina, and any points in Vancouver are always a plus.
Predicted best case: 3 wins, 1 loss, 9 points
Predicted worst case: 1 win, 2 losses, 1 draw, 4 points
Predicted best case finish:
20 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, 65 points
Predicted worst case finish:
14 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses, 50 points
Who is chasing the Timbers?
The Timbers two point lead at the top of the table is somewhat misleading because the Timbers have played at least three fewer games than the teams that are chasing them, and 3-4 fewer games than the teams currently positioned from 2 to 5.
There are realistically only four teams that can catch the Timbers: Seattle, Vancouver, Montreal, and Atlanta. Rochester currently sits in fifth place with 27 points, only 3 points back of the Timbers, but Rochester has already played 19 games and with only 9 games remaining, they are highly unlikely to make a run at the Commissioner’s Cup, which is awarded to the league's regular season champion.
So let’s look at the other four teams, where they stand, and their remaining schedule:
Seattle:
Currently: 2nd place, 8-5-4, 17 matches played, 28 points
Seattle has a large percentage of games left at home (7 of 11), but still have road trips to Rochester, Vancouver, and Minnesota remaining, as well as two games against California, who have been very tough against all teams at the top of the table other than the Timbers. Rochester and Vancouver will likely be looking for revenge for recent 1-0 losses to the Sounders, and the August 1 match vs. the Timbers will have the Timbers seeking payback of their own, but after that, the Sounders schedule is very favorable, so their ability to catch the Timbers will probably be determined in the next three matches.
Vancouver:
Currently: 3rd place (tied), 7-5-6, 18 matches played, 27 points
Statistically, Vancouver has the toughest remaining schedule of all 12 teams in the league, but they play 8 of their last 10 at home, their only two road games being at Portland, so their schedule is favorable in that respect, but they have not done that well at home so far this year, with only 10 points in 6 games. Their current slump of three straight losses and no wins in their past six matches will have to end soon if they are going to have a chance to move back up the table.
Montreal:
Currently: 3rd place (tied), 7-5-6, 18 matches played, 27 points
Montreal is in a terrible slump after a hot start, going 1-3-1 in July and getting hit hard by the injury bug. Other than two games against the California Victory (who have already beaten them), almost every Impact match is against someone fighting for playoff position. It’s hard to see them competing for the title at this point and are likely just trying to finish in the top four so they can have home field choice in the first round.
Atlanta:
Currently: 6th place, 7-6-4, 17 matches played, 25 points
Atlanta was on fire with four straight wins until losing to the Victory at California on Tuesday. Seven of their last eleven matches are on the road where they are 2-1-4 so far, and they still have trips to Portland, Vancouver, Seattle, Carolina, and Montreal on their schedule. They are likely going to be playing for a spot in the top four as well.
Final thoughts
After a brutal 2006 season that saw the Timbers finish tied for last place, very little was expected of the Timbers this season. They had a new coach who had no head coaching experience, and 16 of 24 players on the roster having not played for the Timbers in 2006. Most preseason predictions put the Timbers anywhere between 9th and 11th place, and even Timbers fans approached the 2007 season with a sense of caution with all of the changes, with sneaking into the playoffs being the top goal of most Timbers fans.
The Timbers have undoubtedly benefitted from having relatively minor injury problems compared to some teams that are currently behind them in the standings, but this isn't as purely a result of luck as it may seem, as Wilkinson's stressing of team fitness is well known, and the team is one of the youngest in the league, with an average age of 26, and only one player (Andrew Gregor) is over 30.
Coach Gavin Wilkinson, along with his assistant coaches, and the support of new owner Merritt Paulson, has put together a squad that is young, hungry, and making their success look fun and even easy at times in front of the Timbers faithful, who have responded enthusiastically to the team's early success. The addition of tough exhibition games against Necaxa and the AC Milan U21 team has undoubtedly helped as it has given the chance for some players (like Bryan Jordan) to show their skills and earn a place in the starting lineup, as well as draw large crowds to PGE Park. And an upcoming exhibition against Preston North End will likely pull in well over 10,000 to watch the Timbers in action, which will hopefully increase the home attendance as people discover that there is quality soccer here in Portland.
Can the Timbers put together a good second half and win their second regular season title in four years? Their lead is significant right now as they essentially have a three game buffer against the rest of the league, but their second half slump from last year has to be much on Wilkinson's mind, though last year's problems were largely to do with a team that lost their respect for their coach, something it is not going to happen this year. But the Timbers are also a deeper team than last year so their chances to hold up the Commissioner's Cup this year look promising, and hopefully a chance to move deep into the playoffs, a goal that has eluded the Timbers since the boys in green returned to PGE Park in 2001.
All photos by Allison Andrews
