Apparently, my words alone were not enough to stop Rochester and Minnesota from battling it out for the third straight year in the A-League Championship. Our Canadian friends will probably appreciate that I will not call the game, as the USL does, the A-League National Championship, as Canada is not yet the 51st state.
However, despite having a second sequel to 1998's season finale, the league is trying to make it more exciting by promoting the event beyond the two cities who would obviously take the most interest. This is a good thing to start with, and I hope just because 90% of the people watching Umbro's webcast will be from Minnesota, doesn't mean it's a failure. Marketing is a long-term strategy.
Unlike many people, I will not make a prediction as to who will win the game. While many non-fans decry soccer's lack of scoring, those of us who are enlightened know the thrill of a close match; and also catch the irony as those nay-sayers ohh and ahh over a "pitchers duel". Instead I predict that it will be a close and exciting game, worthy of a championship, and I offer my humble view of the strengths of weaknesses of each team.
Rochester Strengths:
As everyone said all year, on paper this team is hands down the best in the league, but coach Pat Ercoli had to play a juggling match with National Team players and large egos. It's taken some time, but the team has jelled, and found the best time to peak - just before playoffs, and it shows. The defense is solid, allowing 42 goals in for the season, and with Onadi Lowe and Dan Stebbins up front, it should be enough to scare the heck out of any defense.
Off paper, there's Frontier Field. I don't think the much-publicized field dimensions are an issue, but the fans certainly are. History doesn't lie, and the home-team has won every A-League title since the merger with the USL.
Rochester Weaknesses:
Rochester has also played inconsistently, and while Lowe has the skills, he's been roundly criticized for not using them on his club team. Rochester also has to deal with over confidence; streaks are meant to be broken, and both the championship's home-pitch advantage, and Rochester's impressive home record will have to end at some point. I've also heard that Rochester's fan base, while large, can be quite quiet. Nothing is more inflating for a road team than to hear crickets among a 13k crowd.
Rochester's Keys to Victory:
1. Keep the crowd loud and happy.
2. Disrupt Minnesota's offense.
3. Piss off Morgan Zeba.
Minnesota's Strengths:
Everyone knew Minnesota would have a strong team, but it also surprised just about everyone that it would be this strong. The Thunder lost a lot of good players: Amos Magee, Pawel Nowak, Kalin Bankov, and even a few others. However, Gerard Lagos has had a career season, rookie forward Johnny Menyongar has been sensational at knocking in goals, and second year defender Eric Otto has been a solid replacement for an excellent defense.
Minnesota also has had the proverbial monkey lifted from their back when they won last year, first shorthanded at Rochester, and then the A-League Championship, which had eluded three previous attempts. They are also not over confident in their abilities - if they were, it evaporated when Vancouver defeated them 3-0 in the second round of the playoffs.
Minnesota Weaknesses:
Minnesota's defense hasn't been as strong as in year's past, and if they get caught in a shell, they often leave themselves with no outlet to begin a counter-attack. Morgan Zeba can be brilliant, but can also be a hothead - he's made great strides to curb his temper, but it's definitely exploitable.
Minnesota's Keys to Victory:
1. Mel's Diner: the best defense is a good offense
2. Don't get flustered by the crowd
3. Keep the attack well-balanced so Rochester's defense is off-balance.
